The Buffalo Bills have a clear path to No. 2 spot in the AFC, but their market confidence is high ahead of their Week 17 home meeting with the New England Patriots who beat them back in Week 7. The Bills enter this divisional matchup on a three-game winning streak and as 12-point favorites.
With playoffs on the horizon and Josh Allen finding the end zone with ease of late, should bettors continue to bet on the quarterback’s legs today for solid plus money?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Patriots vs. Bills on December 31.
Patriots vs Bills odds
Patriots vs Bills predictions
Josh Allen has found the end zone with his legs in 11 of his 15 games on the season, including six over his last four games. With everything on the line this week and the Buffalo Bills sitting with an implied team total of roughly 26 points, getting his anytime TD at +150 this week is my favorite bet for this AFC East game.
Allen closed at +110 for a TD last week vs. the Chargers on the road so getting it this week at +150 is great expected value — even with the defensive rating bump for the New England Patriots.
Josh Allen takes it himself for the lead!#BUFvsLAC on PeacockAlso available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/eeNRIfK0VS pic.twitter.com/dXvxA4lNrq
— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023
Since Dawson Knox has returned, the Bills are running the ball more and running out of two-TE sets at a hefty rate. Last week was a bit of an exception with Buffalo using 11 personnel at 63% compared to 35% in Week 15 and 47% the week before that. The heavier sets Buffalo runs out of, the better it is for Allen’s TD probability as it decreases the pass rate and therefore his passing TDs.
In the red zone, Allen has 12 carries over his last four games and has taken four total carries inside the 5-yard line over his last two games. His backfield is averaging 4.2 RZ carries per game, giving the quarterback 58% of the team’s red-zone carries since Week 12.
This is something bettors saw last year when Allen saw his rushing rate increase later in the season to save his body from injury earlier in the season. Last season in Weeks 1 through 11, Allen averaged 7.1 carries per game and hit the double-digit carry mark three times. In Weeks 12 through 18, the QB averaged 8.83 carries per game and hit 10 or more carries in 50% of those six games.
With his recent run of finding pay dirt plus some great odds, I’ll be standing up when Buffalo gets in the red zone Sunday and expecting No. 7 to get more than half of the team carries near the goal line.
My best bet: Josh Allen anytime TD (+150 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Patriots vs Bills same-game parlay
Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards
NE +14.5
Douglas Over 46.5 receiving yards
+550 at bet365
Allen’s TD has moved significantly but the later the season goes and more is on the line, the more the QB will use his legs. He averaged 1.7 more carries per game last season over the final six games of the year vs. the beginning of the season and this number is a seven-week low. I’m hitting the alt lines to take the Pats at +14.5. Buffalo is not the best blowout team as this is not an offense that runs up the score. Finally, the game script is going to keep Bailey Zappe passing and Demario Douglas led the Pats in air yards last week in an eight-target game. Since his Week 7 game vs. the Bills, the rookie wideout is averaging 53.4 yards per game and has gone over this number in five of those seven matches.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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