While it’s not the same quarterback matchup as last year’s AFC Championship game, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can’t take Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals lightly in tonight’s Week 17 as a touchdown home favorite, especially after that Christmas performance.
Coming in as a heavy dog after being favored in three straight weeks, the potential game script might not be priced in well enough on Sunday for Jake Browning’s markets, especially when it comes to NFL odds on his pass attempts.
I break down the Week 17 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bengals vs. Chiefs on December 31.
Bengals vs Chiefs odds
Bengals vs Chiefs predictions
In a season of the backup quarterback, Jake Browning has emerged as one of the best. He is completing 75% of his passes, ranks fifth in CPOE, and is completing 67% of his passes on third down.
Browning has been favored in three straight games and threw at least 37 passes in two of those games. In his last game as a dog — a 10-point underdog vs. Jacksonville four weeks ago — he went 32 for 37.
The Cincinnati Bengals QB doesn’t need garbage time to top this number, but that is certainly in the range of outcomes. Browning boasts an elite completion rate, with six or more targets at his disposal, including a pair of reliable running backs, four dependable receivers, and a group of tight ends with solid catching abilities.
The signal-caller might also get Ja’Marr Chase back, which would further increase this number. While Chase was a DNP at practice early in the week, he was on the sidelines working out with trainers.
The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t have to see many passes last week on defense, but plenty of other big-dog QBs have touched the 31-plus mark, including Bailey Zappe (31) at +10.5, Jordan Love (36) at +6, and Aidan O’Connell (33) at +9.5 over the last five weeks. Kansas City starting corner L’Jarius Sneed is also dealing with a calf injury and backup corner Jaylen Watson missed practice early in the week with an illness.
Browning has shown he can hit 32 pass attempts in multiple game scripts thanks to his elite completion percentage and abundance of stable pass catchers. THE BLITZ is calling this one the best +EV plays of the games with a projection of 36.1, and I’d play this to 32.5.
My best bet: Jake Browning Over 31.5 pass attempts (-128 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Bengals vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Browning Over 7.5 rushing yards
Rice Over 64.5 receiving yards
Watson Over 24.5 receiving yards
+547 at FanDuel
You can’t add pass attempts to FanDuel’s SGPs but Browning’s rushing prop projects just as well with THE BLITZ expecting 16.03 yards on the ground for a QB who has shown flashes of big rushing plays. The KC offense is running out of bodies and Rashee Rice will be busy vs. a poor Cincinnati secondary. Justin Watson has also emerged as the No.3 in the passing game. Rice had 12 targets last week and Watson was more productive again as the No.3 posting 50-plus yards compared to MVS who had one target and is more of a decoy to stretch the field.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All UsersNo-sweat 3+ leg SGP every dayBonus bets back if your wager doesn’t win! Claim Now
All Users50% SGP Boost Token all day SundayOne for each slate of Sunday games! Claim Now
All UsersUp to $25 in bonus bets for NFL Week 17Available with parlay/SGP wager. Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
